St. Louis CardinalsvCincinnati Reds

The matchup

The St. Louis Cardinals enter this matchup with a record of 9 wins and 6 losses from their 15 games this season, averaging 5.3 runs scored per game while allowing 2.9 runs against. In their most recent five games, the Cardinals have struggled, losing their last two outings against the Los Angeles Angels by identical scores of 2-3 on July 21 and July 22. Prior to that, they managed to secure three consecutive victories against the Arizona Diamondbacks (5-4, twice) and the Atlanta Braves (2-1). Their recent form indicates a slight downturn in performance, particularly offensively, which could be a concern heading into their next game.

The Cincinnati Reds, on the other hand, have struggled significantly this season, holding a record of 5 wins and 11 losses over 16 games. They have been underwhelming offensively, averaging only 2.4 runs scored per game, while conceding an average of 3.5 runs. In their last five games, they have faced two consecutive heavy defeats against the Seattle Mariners, losing 0-8 on July 21 and July 22. This dismal trend follows a brief two-game winning streak against the Colorado Rockies (7-2, twice) and a shutout victory against the Chicago Cubs (4-0). The Reds' inability to score, coupled with their recent blowout losses, paints a stark picture of their current state.

Does the price match the form?

The current odds in the market indicate that the St. Louis Cardinals are favoured at $1.63, representing a 61.3% implied probability of victory. The Cincinnati Reds are listed at $2.40, with a 41.7% implied probability. These figures together sum to 103%, representing the bookmaker margin. Comparing the Cardinals' implied probability to their recent results, one has to question if their poor performance in the last two games against the Angels is properly accounted for. Similarly, while the Reds have marked some wins earlier in the month, their consecutive losses and scoring woes suggest their 41.7% implied probability may not adequately reflect their recent form. Is there a disconnect between what the numbers suggest and the odds being offered?

Where to look in the markets

Considering the combined scoring average of around 8 total points if both teams maintain their current scoring figures, it will be essential to examine the totals market. Bettors should scrutinise the bookmaker's posted line against this average, especially given the Cardinals’ recent struggles to produce runs. Additionally, the significant disparity in recent team form raises questions about the head-to-head market. The Cardinals' recent scoring tendency shows vulnerability, which may tilt the line in unexpected directions depending on the published odds. Lastly, examining player prop markets could also be worthwhile, as the performance of key hitters for the Cardinals could influence their scoring ability against a Reds' pitching staff struggling to contain runs.

Before you bet, check

• What are the latest team lists and injury updates for both teams?
• What are the weather conditions expected at the venue, especially for potential rain delays?
• What travel schedules and turnaround times could impact player performance and fatigue?
• Are there any competition-specific rules or variations that could affect gameplay, such as pitching matchups?

Staking this game

With the shortest price available in the market at $1.63, achieving a break-even point necessitates a 61% success rate. Utilising a disciplined 1-2% flat staking strategy can help navigate through the inevitable losing runs that even the strongest favourites encounter throughout a season.