Chicago CubsvAtlanta Braves

The matchup

The Chicago Cubs enter this matchup with a record of 33 wins and 24 losses from 57 games, averaging 5.2 runs scored and allowing 4.5 runs against per game. Their recent form shows a mixed bag, having lost their last match against the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-4 at home on September 13th, following a narrow victory against the same team the day before, where they triumphed 4-3. Notably, they had a strong showing prior to this, winning 12-2 against the Pirates on September 11th, indicating their potential for explosive offensive performances. However, they struggled against the Milwaukee Brewers in previous games, losing two close encounters 6-8 and 3-4.

On the other hand, the Atlanta Braves have a slightly below-par record of 31 wins and 31 losses over 62 games, averaging 4.2 runs for versus 4.5 against per game. Their last five games include a significant loss to the Philadelphia Phillies 4-9 but they managed to bounce back to win 12-2 against the same team just a day earlier. Their pattern reveals a reliance on strong offensive games, though inconsistent, as seen in their performances against the Tampa Bay Rays with one win and one significant loss (2-7). While both teams’ scoring averages suggest a combined total of about 9 points, the Cubs appear to be in a better position given their recent high-scoring outings and the ability to win close games.

Does the price match the form?

The current market odds reflect the following implied probabilities: Chicago Cubs at $1.77 which equates to a 56.5% implied probability, and the Atlanta Braves at $2.17 with a 46.1% implied probability. The market total stands at 102.6%, suggesting that bookmakers expect a competitive match. Examining the performance data, the Cubs’ implied probability aligns well with their record of winning a majority of recent home games and averaging more points compared to the Braves. However, could the inconsistency shown in their last match against the Pirates and moments of defensive weakness raise questions about the Cubs being such strong favourites? Is the market undervaluing the Braves after they posted a convincing win against a formidable opponent like the Phillies?

Where to look in the markets

Three markets appear relevant for this matchup based on current data: the head-to-head market, the totals over/under, and player prop markets concerning offensive performance. The combined scoring average of 9 points suggests potential insights into the totals market, making it essential to compare this figure against the bookmaker's posted line. Additionally, the Cubs’ mixed results against the Brewers and the Braves’ uneven form mean that examining the head-to-head market might uncover value, especially considering the Braves’ recent high-scoring games. Lastly, given both teams’ scoring averages, it may also be worthwhile to assess player prop bets related to run production, particularly for those on the Cubs who have demonstrated bursts of scoring ability.

Before you bet, check

• What is the injury report for either team ahead of the game?
• What are the weather conditions expected for the day of the match?
• Are there any significant travel concerns impacting team readiness for this matchup?
• What are the team lineups, and who is actually set to play?

Staking this game

With the shortest price in the market at $1.77 necessitating a 56% strike rate just to break even, it is crucial to maintain discipline. Employing a flat staking strategy of 1-2% helps mitigate losses during inevitable losing runs, particularly with strong favourites like the Cubs who can sometimes fall short despite appearances.