St. Louis Cardinals v Chicago Cubs betting strategy

The matchup

The St. Louis Cardinals enter this matchup with a record of 9 wins and 9 losses, having averaged 4.9 points for and 3.4 points against over 18 games this season. Recently, they are struggling, having lost five consecutive games, all of which were contested at home. Their offensive output has been inconsistent, as indicated by the scores in those matches, including two losses to the Cincinnati Reds, where they scored just 2 points in each game. This poor form is a significant concern as they face a Chicago Cubs team that has defeated them twice this season, both times in early July by a score of 17-1.

The Chicago Cubs, on the other hand, have recorded 8 wins and 10 losses, with an average of 3.0 points for and a concerning 5.3 points against. Their recent form shows a notable improvement as they managed to win three consecutive games against the Pittsburgh Pirates, each by a score of 3-2. However, their earlier games leading up to this streak included two losses to the Detroit Tigers, where they conceded 8 points in both matches. This inconsistency leaves questions about their defensive capabilities going into a tie against the Cardinals.

Does the price match the form?

The current betting market reflects the following implied probabilities: St. Louis Cardinals at $2.00, which translates to a 50.0% implied probability, and Chicago Cubs at $1.96, with a 51.0% implied probability. The combined market total stands at 101.0%, which indicates the bookmaker's margin.

Analyzing the implied probabilities in context of the recent team performances raises an interesting question. The Cardinals' poor recent form (5 losses in a row) contrasts sharply with the Cubs' recent success (3 wins), despite their overall poorer record for the season. Do the Cubs deserve a higher implied probability given their recent victories, or are the Cardinals expected to return to form at home despite their struggles? This is worth investigating further.

Where to look in the markets

Given the data provided, there are a few specific markets worth exploring. The totals over/under market is significant, with a combined scoring average between both teams of about 8 total points, which may suggest bookmakers could set an interesting line. Examining that line in relation to both teams' scoring averages could provide insight into potential overs or unders.

The head-to-head market is crucial as well, considering the Cardinals' dominance in their previous encounters this season, winning 17-1 in both games. How much weight will those previous results carry in the betting markets, especially with the current form trends?

Before you bet, check

What is the latest team list, and are there any key injuries affecting performance?
What are the expected weather conditions at the venue on game day?
How does travel and turnaround time influence the Cubs’ preparation for this match?
What is the playing surface and its condition, especially late in the season?

Staking this game

With the shortest price in the market at $1.96, a strike rate of 51% is necessary merely to break even. Employing a disciplined approach with a 1-2% flat staking method can help manage losing runs that even strong backers experience.