Baltimore OriolesvChicago Cubs

The matchup

The Baltimore Orioles enter this matchup with a record of 3 wins and 4 losses over their last 7 games, averaging 2.4 points for and allowing 3.7 points against. Their most recent performances have been less than ideal, suffering two consecutive losses to the Chicago Cubs, both by a score of 2-5 on July 7 and July 8. Prior to that, they did manage an impressive three-game sweep against the Cincinnati Reds, winning all three games by scores of 3-0.

On the other hand, the Chicago Cubs have been more successful lately, boasting a record of 4 wins and 2 losses from their last 6 games, with an average of 3.0 points for but a concerning 7.0 points against. Their last two games against the Orioles were strong victories, indicating a potential upward trajectory despite their earlier blowout loss to the St. Louis Cardinals (1-17) on July 5 and July 3. The Cubs have managed to outscore the Orioles decisively in their recent head-to-head meetings, winning 5-2 on both July 7 and July 8.

Does the price match the form?

The current market indicates the following implied probabilities: Baltimore Orioles at $1.80 (55.6% implied) and Chicago Cubs at $2.10 (47.6% implied), with a combined market total of 103.2%. This suggests that bookmakers see the Orioles as the slight favourites despite their recent struggles and losing streak against the Cubs. Examining the form, the Orioles' recent poor run raises questions about whether their implied probability accurately reflects their current capabilities, especially given Chicago's recent dominance in their matchups. Is Baltimore's ranking as favourites truly justified based on their recent head-to-head results and scoring averages?

Where to look in the markets

Given the combined scoring average of about 5 total points when both teams hit their season averages, the totals over/under market should be examined closely, especially in contrast to what the bookmakers set as their line. Additionally, the head-to-head market may be interesting due to the Cubs' recent success against the Orioles, winning the last two matchups decisively. With the Cubs scoring consistently above 5 points in their last two games against Baltimore, investigating individual player props, such as runs scored or RBIs, may also yield valuable insights.

Before you bet, check

• What is the team's injury status leading into this game?
• What is the weather forecast for the venue on game day?
• Is there any significant travel or turnaround impact affecting the Cubs?
• Have the starting pitchers been confirmed, and do their statistics align with recent performances?
• What are the market lines doing in the hours leading up to the game?

Staking this game

With the Orioles' price at $1.80 needing a 56% strike rate just to break even, maintaining disciplined staking is critical. A flat stake of 1-2% will help weather the inevitable losing streaks that may occur with even strong favourites like the Orioles.