St. Louis Cardinals v Milwaukee Brewers betting strategy

The matchup

The St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers both come into this matchup with perfect records in their last five games, each sitting at 5W-0L. The Cardinals have been particularly dominant, averaging 9.8 points for and only 2.2 points against in those games. Notably, they achieved two significant blowout victories against the Chicago Cubs, winning both games 17-1 on July 5 and July 3. These results underscore their offensive prowess, evidenced not only by those totals but also by defeating the Atlanta Braves three consecutive times with a narrow margin of 5-3.

The Brewers, meanwhile, also maintained a winning streak but with a lower scoring average of 5.8 points for and 3.4 points against. Their last five results included two victories over the Arizona Diamondbacks, winning both 7-4 on July 4 and July 5, and a solid series against the Cincinnati Reds, where they emerged victorious in all three encounters. While the Brewers have shown their ability to win, their recent scoring output indicates they may face challenges against the high-scoring Cardinals.

Does the price match the form?

The current best-of-market decimal odds show the St. Louis Cardinals at $2.60, which translates to an implied probability of 38.5%. Conversely, the Milwaukee Brewers are listed at $1.53, indicating an implied probability of 65.4%. The market total stands at 103.8% with a combined bookmaker margin of 3.8% over 100%.

When aligning these probabilities with the data, a question arises regarding the perceived value of the Cardinals. Are their explosive offensive numbers enough to justify a 38.5% probability against a team like the Brewers, who, although currently winning, have been scoring less frequently? The disparity in scoring averages offers an avenue for investigation given the mismatched offensive outputs.

Where to look in the markets

The totals over/under market is particularly relevant, given the combined scoring average of approximately 16 points if both teams hit their season numbers. Compare this against the bookmaker's posted line to gauge the potential for overs or unders.
Examine the head-to-head market, as the Cardinals are currently on a scoring roll, making it crucial to consider their recent performances against the Brewers and any historical outcomes if applicable.
Investigate player prop markets, specifically for Cardinals' hitters who have been boosting scoring averages significantly, particularly in recent blowout games.

Before you bet, check

What are the latest team lists and injury reports for both squads?
Is there any adverse weather forecast for this outdoor venue that could affect play?
What is the travel schedule for the Brewers coming into this game?
Have there been any recent trades or player movements that could impact team dynamics?

Staking this game

With the shortest price at $1.53 needing a 65% strike rate just to break even, maintaining discipline in your staking is critical. Consider a 1-2% flat staking plan to ensure resilience through the inevitable losing runs that can arise, even with seemingly strong favourites like the Brewers.