St. Louis Cardinals v Milwaukee Brewers betting strategy

The matchup

The St. Louis Cardinals have a record of 5 wins and 3 losses from their last eight games this season, averaging 7.3 points scored per game while conceding 2.9. Notably, they have just come off a three-game losing streak against the Milwaukee Brewers, where the Cardinals lost each game by a narrow margin of 3-4. Prior to this streak, the Cardinals achieved an impressive 17-1 victory over the Chicago Cubs. This blend of offensive capability and defensive fragility presents a unique dynamic heading into the upcoming matchup.

On the other hand, the Milwaukee Brewers are enjoying an undefeated streak of 8 wins from 8 games this season, with an average of 5.1 runs scored and 3.3 runs allowed. Their recent performances against the Cardinals have been consistent, as they also secured three consecutive narrow victories against them, with each game ending 4-3. Given that both teams' recent head-to-head encounters have ended closely, the coming match promises to be competitive, though the Brewers' form suggests they are currently in strong shape.

Does the price match the form?

The current betting market shows the following implied probabilities: St. Louis Cardinals at $2.22 (45.0% implied probability) and Milwaukee Brewers at $1.79 (55.9% implied probability), with a total market percentage of 100.9%. When we examine the Brewers' perfect record against the Cardinals of 8-0 this season, alongside their impressive offensive play, the market's favoring of the Brewers aligns with the known data.

However, one notable observation is the Cardinals' recent offensive output of 7.3 points per game, which significantly contrasts with their losing results against the Brewers. Does this discrepancy indicate a potential value in the Cardinals' price, or is the market accurately reflecting their recent struggles? Such questions warrant further investigation.

Where to look in the markets

Totals Over/Under: With a combined scoring average of approximately 12 total points when both teams hit their season figures, it's essential for bettors to compare the bookmakers' posted line against this average.
Head-to-Head: Given that the Brewers have won all four encounters this season against the Cardinals by identical scores, examining the head-to-head market could reveal valuable insights regarding the expected outcome.
Winning Margin: Given the close nature of their last three meetings, analyzing the expected winning margin could yield interesting angles, especially if the bookmakers expect a repeat of those close scores.

Before you bet, check

What is the latest team news, including any injuries or absences affecting either side?
What are the expected weather conditions at the venue, especially if it's an outdoor game?
What are the travel arrangements and potential fatigue factors for the Brewers after their previous away games?
Are there any specific matchups or player performances that could impact the game result?

Staking this game

With the shortest price available at $1.79 requiring a strike rate of 56% just to break even, maintaining discipline is critical. A flat staking strategy of 1-2% allows for sustainability even amid losing runs that can impact backing strong favorites like the Brewers.