Pittsburgh Pirates v St. Louis Cardinals betting strategy

The matchup

The Pittsburgh Pirates enter this matchup with a record of 34 wins and 33 losses across 67 games, averaging 4.6 runs scored per game while allowing 4.5 runs against. Their recent form is promising, with four victories in their last five games. They secured wins against the Kansas City Royals in a three-game sweep just a few days ago, each time winning by one or two runs with scores of 4-3, 6-5, and 8-5. The notable performance against the Milwaukee Brewers, where they also claimed a win, demonstrates their ability to compete closely and secure crucial victories.

In contrast, the St. Louis Cardinals have struggled this season, recording 26 wins and 34 losses from 60 games, with a scoring average of 4.4 runs for and against. Their recent results indicate inconsistency, having lost three out of their last five games, including a significant defeat to the Washington Nationals, where they lost 1-9 on September 19. Their last five games featured a mix of performances, including a narrow win over Washington, but their recent head-to-head results against the Pirates paint a mixed picture: the Pirates have edged them out with five wins to four this season, although the Cardinals claimed a decisive 4-1 victory on August 29.

Does the price match the form?

The current market offers the following implied probabilities for this matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates at $1.69 with an implied probability of 59.2%, and St. Louis Cardinals at $2.40 with an implied probability of 41.7%. The combined market total stands at 100.8%, indicating the bookmakers' margin. In examining the Pirates' winning record and their recent performance, the market's view suggesting they are the favourites holds a degree of consistency. Yet, with the Cardinals having managed to win 4 out of 9 encounters this season against the Pirates, can we question if the Cardinals' recent inconsistency might provide an edge that the odds do not fully encapsulate?

Where to look in the markets

Given the current data, there are a few promising markets to consider. The totals over/under market is worth examining, as the combined scoring average of both teams is 9 runs, which should be weighed against the bookmaker's posted line for totals. Additionally, the head-to-head market presents an opportunity to assess if the Pirates' recent strong form against the Cardinals can influence the odds in their favour. Player prop markets featuring whether specific players will perform at or above the team averages could also be insightful based on the team's recent scoring dynamics.

Before you bet, check

What are the latest team lineups and injury reports for both teams?
What are the weather conditions expected for the venue on game day?
How does travel distance and schedule impact player performance and fatigue?
What adjustments have both teams made in their recent strategy or gameplay style?

Staking this game

With the Pirates' lowest price at $1.69 requiring a 59% win rate just to break even, it's essential to maintain a disciplined approach to staking. Implementing a 1-2% flat stake will help manage exposure and navigate the inevitable losing runs that can occur, even with perceived strong favourites.