BASEBALL · MLB
Pittsburgh PiratesvMilwaukee Brewers
Best-of-market odds when this analysis was generated · market total 100.2% — shopping the best price at each bookmaker shrinks or removes the usual margin. Prices move constantly — check current markets.
After the match
Writing a quick retrospective on how the market read this one…
The matchup
The Pittsburgh Pirates currently hold a record of 30 wins and 31 losses from 61 games, demonstrating a slight edge in performance with an average of 4.6 points for and 4.5 points against per game. Their recent form shows some inconsistency, as they managed to secure a narrow victory against the Chicago Cubs with a score of 4-3 on September 13, following two consecutive losses to the same team, including a significant defeat of 2-12 on September 11. Prior to this, they did record a couple of wins against the Chicago White Sox, including a strong 2-0 performance on September 10.
The Milwaukee Brewers, on the other hand, boast a more robust record of 36 wins and 23 losses from 59 games. They are averaging 5.9 points for and 3.9 points against, indicating a stronger offensive output compared to the Pirates. Their most recent games show a mix of performances, including a loss to the Cincinnati Reds (3-4) on September 13, but prior to that, they displayed dominance with victories, tallying up scores of 20-0 and 13-9 against the same opponent. Historically this season, their encounters have leaned slightly towards the Pirates with each team trading victories; this season has seen the Brewers win 4 games while the Pirates have taken 2 of their matchups.
Does the price match the form?
The current market odds show Pittsburgh Pirates priced at $3.30, which translates to an implied probability of 30.3%, while the Milwaukee Brewers are favored at $1.43, giving them an implied probability of 69.9%. This brings the market total to 100.2%. Given the Pirates' recent form, including their recent win and losses to the Brewers, one might question whether the Brewers' implied probability accurately reflects their capability to repeat their historical success over the Pirates this season. With the Pirates recording several close games and a solid overall scoring average, is the market fully justifying the Brewers as overwhelming favorites?
Where to look in the markets
Given the combined scoring averages from both teams, which amounts to about 10 total points, it's particularly worthwhile to investigate the totals over/under market. If bookmakers set the line close to this combined average, there might be value in either direction, especially considering the recent high-scoring games by the Brewers. Additionally, the head-to-head market may present further insights, especially as the Pirates have managed to keep encounters competitive, with six of their games this season resulting in narrow margins. Finally, examining player props for those in either team who have been key to their success could potentially yield appealing opportunities.
Before you bet, check
- What is the latest on player injuries impacting team performance?
- Is there any weather forecast that may affect gameplay at the venue?
- What are the travel arrangements for the visiting Milwaukee Brewers?
- Have any significant lineup changes been announced prior to this match?
- What has been the overall performance of the home plate umpire in recent games?
Staking this game
Considering the lowest price in the market is $1.43, a punter would need a 70% strike rate just to break even. Adopting a disciplined approach with 1-2% flat staking can help absorb potential losing streaks that even solid favorites like the Brewers experience from time to time.