BASEBALL · MLB
Chicago CubsvPittsburgh Pirates
Best-of-market odds when this analysis was generated · combined margin ~2.6%. Prices move constantly — check current markets.
After the match
How it played out
The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Chicago Cubs 4-3, resulting in an upset relative to the pre-game market, which favored the Cubs with an implied probability of approximately 57%.
How our pre-game read held up
Our pre-game analysis suggested that the Cubs had a strong position, given their recent success against the Pirates. However, the outcome showed that the Pirates were able to challenge this expectation effectively, ultimately winning the game despite the Cubs' favored status.
The matchup
The Chicago Cubs enter this matchup with a strong record of 33 wins and 23 losses from 56 games in the 2026 season. Their offense has averaged 5.2 runs per game while allowing 4.5 runs against. Notably, the Cubs have recently faced the Pittsburgh Pirates in two games, winning both decisively with scores of 12-2 and 4-3. In their last five games, the Cubs have struggled against the Milwaukee Brewers, losing three consecutive games before bouncing back with two wins against the Pirates.
The Pittsburgh Pirates, on the other hand, hold a record of 29 wins and 31 losses from 60 games this season, averaging 4.6 runs scored and 4.5 runs allowed per game. Their recent form shows a concerning trend, losing their last two games to the Cubs. Prior to that, the Pirates enjoyed some success against the Chicago White Sox, winning three consecutive games. The head-to-head statistics reflect a dominant performance from the Cubs this season, as they have bested the Pirates four times, with scores such as 12-2 and 4-3 illustrating their superiority.
Does the price match the form?
The current market offers the following odds: Chicago Cubs at $1.72, which implies a probability of 58.1%, and the Pittsburgh Pirates at $2.25, implying a probability of 44.4%. The total market probability stands at 102.6%, indicating a 2.6% bookmaker margin over the total listed outcomes.
Examining the implied probability of the Cubs at 58.1%, one must consider their recent performance, particularly against the Pirates. With two consecutive wins and a strong overall record, the market appears to align with the Cubs’ recent form and head-to-head results. However, it raises a question: does the implied probability account for the Pirates' offensive capabilities and potential adjustments? Their ability to score 4.6 runs per game suggests they cannot be underestimated, potentially influencing their price against the Cubs.
Where to look in the markets
- Head-to-head market: With the Cubs winning four out of five encounters this season, comparing both teams' past performances could yield insights into a viable betting strategy.
- Totals over/under: The combined scoring averages of both teams indicate an expectation of about 10 total runs. Checking the bookmakers’ posted line against this average could be telling, particularly considering the Cubs’ ability to rack up runs against the Pirates recently.
- Margin markets: Given the Cubs' recent blowout win of 12-2 against the Pirates, it would be prudent to explore the margins to see if the odds reflect the potential disparity in team form.
Before you bet, check
- What are the latest team lists and injury updates for both teams going into this game?
- What are the weather conditions expected at the venue on the day of the match, especially if it's outdoors?
- How does the travel schedule affect the preparedness of the Pirates, given their recent games?
- Are there any known competition-specific rules or implications for this matchup that could influence performance?
Staking this game
With the shortest price in the market being $1.72, it requires a strike rate of 58% to break even. A disciplined approach with 1-2% flat staking can manage the inherent volatility within this matchup, preserving your bankroll against the inevitable losing runs that can occur even with strong favourites.